If you ask a media buyer which CPA offers are the best to run during Black Friday, they will instinctively answer ‘eCommerce, Nutra, or Giveaways.’ We did ask them, in fact — so this theory is proven.

Another theory is that the shopping season might significantly boost another, less obvious vertical — personal loans and credit cards.

This sounds logical, right? People want to purchase, and there is a big chance they might lack money to embrace all the most lucrative Black Friday sales.

We decided to delve into this question and check if it really works like this… or not. The plot thickens, and the investigation begins!

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Stage 1: Black Friday CPA Offers and Statistics Overview

First, let’s take a look at what CPA networks offer us on the threshold of the biggest sale of the year. Here is an example of what you will most likely see:

Offer	Vertical	GEO	Payout
Black Friday – FR, [CPL] Giveaway	Giveaway	FR	$0,57
iPhone 15 Pro Black Friday Page – Giveaway	Giveaway	UK	$16
US-Win $500 Amazon Gift Card Black Friday	Giveaway	US	$3
US – Shein Black Friday Offer – CPL	eCommerce	US	$3,5
IT – iPhone15 Black Friday – SOI [IT]	Giveaway	IT	$2,64
SG|SOI|Sephora Black Friday – Default	eCommerce	SG	$1.65
MX – Avenida Consumo – Black Friday	eCommerce	MX	$0.46
ImunoMax – BA	Nutra	BA	$22.5
AtlasVPN (MultiGeo), [CPS]	VPN	WW	45%

Two curious facts: 

1. 1. This sale is not only about Tier 1 countries anymore. Another proof is this statistic, which says 76% of global consumers are inclined to productive shopping during Black Friday sales.

2. 2. Most offers are Giveaways and eCommerce, just as we predicted. Some specials from other verticals, for example, VPN Black Friday discounts, are also available, as well as a couple of trading offers. However, no sign of special loan offers.

So, the conclusion: even if Black Friday boosts a loan vertical, you will barely find any special CPA offers related to sales.

And, another quick fact: many people worldwide don’t want to go all-in this year and spend much during Black Friday. As per Statista, the share of consumers who decided to cut back their usual Black Friday spending varies from 47% in Germany to 70% in the UK.

Not very likely that they will take any loans, right?

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Stage 2: Loan Vertical Seasonality

The next part of our investigation is the loan vertical and, in particular, how it depends on the seasons. 

According to Investopedia, loans have the highest demand during the spring and summer seasons — with the peak in August or September. The rest of the year shows a decrease in demand, which might be related to less lucrative interest rates — not holidays or sales.

To support this point, we checked out the statistics of all our partners running Finance offers. Here is a comparison of last year’s Black Friday stats and the numbers a month before:

Date	Impressions	Conversions
25/10/2022	798 177 876	40 811
25/11/2022	485 233 847	37 452

In human language, this means that the number of impressions was 313 mln bigger a month before Black Friday. Simply put, there was a decrease in the Finance vertical — not even a sign of a boost.

Meanwhile, eCommerce traffic showed a completely different performance — and a noticeable rise:

Date	Impressions	Conversions
25/10/2022	450 644 167	524 039
25/11/2022	567 083 848	944 527

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Stage 3: Opinions On Black Friday & Loans

Armed with this information, we went to a seasoned media buyer with a direct question:

— We can’t see any correlation between Black Friday and loans. What about you?’

And here is what he replied:

Serge: I can definitely see the logic in this hypothesis. However, I haven’t witnessed any specific growth of loans in my practice. My suggestion is that the Finance vertical might perform pretty well without any particular advertising during the shopping season. For example, you can apply for a loan right at some eCommerce platforms when you make a purchase — so why should loan companies spend extra on ads?

Another opinion comes from Irina Razvodova, PropellerAds Business Development Director:

Irina: Loans don’t depend on any seasonality: people need them urgently, no matter how lucrative the offer is. Speaking about credit card offers, they are more likely to have some seasonal triggers like an extended grace period — but that’s not typical as well. Overall, Black Friday is about eCommerce and Nutra, not FinTech.

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The Conclusion

So, the myth is busted!

You can come across some ‘seasonal shopping loans’ like this:

However, it will unlikely come in the form of a CPA offer.

Our investigation shows that although the Finance vertical is more or less evergreen, it’s not really related to Black Friday. eCommerce, Nutra, and Giveaways combined with Push ads traffic stay on the top during all the shopping holidays — and you are welcome to run them.

You have another opinion on this topic? Share it on our Telegram channel — and we will update this research with your expert knowledge!